The landscape of traditional moviegoing is undergoing a significant transformation, raising concerns about its future viability as a business model. According to a recent survey, more than half of U.S. exhibition executives are skeptical about the longevity of the “traditional cinema experience,” predicting it may thrive for less than 20 years. This uncertainty stems from ongoing changes in viewing habits fueled by pandemic-induced shifts and the growing dominance of streaming services.
A Pessimistic Outlook from Industry Experts
An in-depth survey conducted by analyst Stephen Follows and Screendollars engaged 246 executives from the U.S. film industry. The findings highlight widespread concern over the traditional moviegoing model. Approximately 55% of respondents expressed doubt that this model has more than two decades of life left, with choices ranging from “less than five years” to “10 to 20 years.”
The sentiment varied across sectors, with exhibition executives showing more optimism than those in sales, distribution, and production. Over 60% of sales and distribution executives harbored doubts about the model’s long-term sustainability, reinforcing a prevailing narrative of industry skepticism.
Interpreting the ‘Traditional Cinema Experience’
The concept of the “traditional cinema experience” is open to interpretation. Follows suggests that while the traditional model might evolve, the essence of cinemas could endure by adapting to future demands, possibly incorporating formats like Imax or 4DX as distinct experiences. This adaptability could help theaters remain relevant, despite a shift in consumer preferences.
Revenue Challenges and Industry Preferences
Beyond concerns about longevity, the survey revealed that nearly 90% of U.S. exhibition executives reported revenue levels still lagging behind pre-pandemic figures. Further, a significant majority—81%—expressed a desire for a theatrical window of at least six weeks for new releases, underscoring the value of exclusivity. Meanwhile, 77% perceived simultaneous streaming releases as detrimental to the theatrical business.
As the traditional moviegoing model faces existential questions, the evolution of the cinema experience could provide a pathway for theaters to thrive in a changing world. While uncertainty remains, the industry is poised to explore new avenues to sustain its cultural and commercial significance.
